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Beyond Meat could use more boost as stock trades drop after another earnings miss (BYND)

Published by

November 28, 2024
(GMT+2)

Beyond Meat (BYND -7%) seems like it could use some more boost, as its stock is trading lower after yet another earnings miss. The plant-based meat substitute producer has now missed on EPS for the third consecutive quarter. Competitive concerns have been an issue with BYND recently and have caused a large retreat in the stock in recent months. This earnings report is definitely not going to relieve investors’ fears.BYND has two reportable segments, and they each behave quite differently: Retail and Foodservice. The Retail side has held up quite well throughout the pandemic and displayed development again in Q1. The trouble spot has understandably been the Foodservice side, which caters to restaurants, hotels, casinos, schools, movie theaters, sports arenas, etc.BYND’s Retail segment, which includes sales through grocery stores such as WMT and COST, posted 28% yr/yr growth to $63.8 mln in the US and skyrocketed by 189% globally to $17.2 mln. International sales are a lot smaller than domestic category sales but are growing nicely. Looking ahead, BYND remains bullish on its Retail segment as we head into the summer grilling months.Foodservice segment sales in Q1 dropped by 26% yr/yr in the US to $16.7 mln and by 44% yr/yr internationally to $10.4 mln. The drops were not surprising considering the COVID restrictions in Q1; the quarter did include improvement relative to Q4.However, the main concern might be that BYND was not more confident regarding the outlook for its Foodservice segment, which has been a drag on results for several quarters. BYND does see improvement in the US as vaccines roll out, but management did not seem as bullish on it as they did on their Retail outlook. Furthermore, the international Foodservice outlook was not a big topic of discussion on the call, which is a bit troublesome.BYND did not mention competition much on the call, but it does benefit from a first-mover advantage. However, increasing competition is considered an emerging threat. Aside from BYND’s main competitor, Impossible Foods (which is planning an IPO), competition is also heating up with frozen food companies such as Nestle and ConAgra (CAG) and animal protein companies such as Hormel Foods (HRL) and Tyson Foods (TSN). All of these companies are clearly seeing the lucrative potential of plant-based meat.To cut a long story short, this was not a substantial quarter for BYND. Three misses in a row indicate that analyst calculations are too high and need to become more realistic. It’s possible that analysts are too bullish on the timing of a turnaround in Foodservice sales. Besides earnings, another concern from the quarter may be a lack of an update on recent deals with McDonald’s and Yum! Brands. Finally, the stock had dropped to about 10% in the week heading into earnings, showing that investors had worries regarding the quarter, and those were backed out. We think Retail will carry on improving in 2021, but Foodservice may take longer to recover than people anticipate.

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